In this post, I’m gonna try to predict when the next migration is going to happen. I was planning to make this post to predict this recent migration. However, since it already started, I’ll try to predict the next one in this post.
In a recent poll, I had asked you guys when the next migration is going to be & surprisingly about 45% of players got it right. They said, they have no idea which was the right answer to that question when the poll was posted. Because nobody, including myself can tell you when the next migration is going to be. Obviously, looking back at the poll, the right answer would’ve been ‘This Week’ instead of ‘No Idea’
But for today’s post, we’re gonna make a prediction of the next migration event based on the past trend. I made a similar post in the past, however, back then, there wasn’t enough data to make an accurate prediction. But for this post, we have a lot more data. So, hopefully it’ll help you predict the next migration & future migrations with a lot more accuracy. You can either watch this video or continue reading this post:
Let’s first take a look at a table showing you when the migration events took place in the past:
|Event No.||Start Date (Duration in days)||Day||Difference||Last City||Difference|
|1||August 2nd, 2019 (14)||Friday||0||388||0|
|2||October 11th, 2019 (14)||Friday||70||468||80|
|3||December 6th, 2019 (14)||Friday||56||588||120|
|4||February 14th, 2020 (14)||Friday||70||680||92|
|5||May 4th, 2020 (14)||Monday||80||782||102|
|6||July 6th, 2020 (13)||Monday||63||846||64|
|7||September 21st, 2020 (14)||Monday||77||950||104|
|8||November 21st, 2020 (14)||Saturday||61||1016||66|
|9||February 8th, 2021 (14)||Monday||79||1092||76|
|10||April 23rd, 2021 (14)||Friday||74||1156||64|
As you’ll notice the difference between two migrations has ranged anywhere between 56 days to 80 days, and the average difference is 70 days.
You’ll also notice that the migration usually starts on either a Monday or a Friday in most cases. There was only one exception where it started on a Saturday.
Also, the July 6th migration only lasted for 13 days because there was going to be a governor battle on the last day which is why they couldn’t allow people to migrate on that day, so they shortened it’s duration by 1 day. This clearly means that the migration phase cannot coincide with a governor or interstate battle.
Using all of this information, we can make a few predictions.
First we can predict that the migration should happen between 56 to 80 days since that’s the range according to the past trend.
However, we can reduce the number of days significantly if we only consider Mondays & Fridays.
Since the next interstate battle is going to be on the 4th of July 2021. It’s not possible for the migration to start between the 21nd of June to the 27th of June 2021. So, we can rule out those two possibilities as well.
Finally this leaves us with only 6 days, the next migration is very likely to be on one of these days. They’re the 18th & 21st of June & the 2nd, 5th, 9th & 12th of July 2021.
Let me know what you guys think about this prediction & also let me know your own predictions in the comments down below.
Before I end this post I’d like to thank all my patrons for the support:
Level 100 Bosses: Anonymous
Level 50 Bosses: ༒Soju Godzilla༒
Level 20 Bosses: ₱Ⱨ₳Ɽ₳ØⱧ ༒ ₮ɆⱤⱤØR (C981), ꉣꏂꋪꊰꏂꉔ꓄꒒ꌦ ꊰꉔꀘ꒯Uꉣ (C981)
Level 10 Bosses: Purple Swirl (C153), Philipp Roth, NIGHTKING (C313), Yuyul Dollkiller (C562), Kamikaze77(C407), Hero ¥ (C898), KO Boss (C590), PWA80, BadASSDaD (C120), عبدالله آلسبيعيء, ₦ï¢₭¥ ĐɆɆ (C751), AscMirzo, Thoress, kalhouli (C837), [Oldboy], 12cz, Zubair Rafique, verbeurke16, ꋊꂦꍟ꒒ꍏꋊꀤ, BrianBozElloy (C549)
Level 5 Bosses: Jon Phillips, Lavialle Xavier, Sidney Heath, Saharudin31, Psychaos (C158), Adam Quinn, Chris, Sage (C519), Fluffy (C509), XxXReaperXxX (C507), Wbm23, Calculated Gamer (C178), Padrino⁶⁶⁰ (C660), Nik0708, Cali Bug (C602), Casper, Punisher (C454), Achilles (C429), Don Hugo(C313), Eric Shün, Tank God, Sidney Rich, Nicholli410 (C569) Максим Суворов, Dginny (C591), MarkDeLux (C557), Pops Buggliosi (C742), samuel brito jr, Aussie God (C126), AreZi, Tracey, Aussie Assassin (C300), Aaron Henry, 805 Baller, CarolFkinBaskin (C768), John Fukn Wick, cloths, One9GT, SquirrellyDan, ¥¥¥Aries¥¥¥, Rykt3r (C496), Smittyson (C716), Superwog (C176), 601money (C927), Harley Quinn (C735), Doctor (C361), Julia313, Anubis, Daryl Parrett, Micado (C469), LW, Enriico Monti, J Silent M, Stitch (C361), CUTIESHORT, Dana Perry, Temperance 77 (C249), António Pimenta, William Perry, Everlasting, Jaffe De Jaffe (C950), City 124, EmilyGrace, King Cyrus (C962), Charles Van Veen, Angela Mistrulli-Cantone, Myat945, Bounty六六六, тєƒℓση ∂ση 887. Chris, HughGRection69, Ana Abramusic, Saikosa, johnsmith, Madam Rose (C579), 07GSXR, Hellraiser (C388), Jon, Ainz Ooal Gown, Cali Bug, Anton, Jub Jub (C1035). If you wanna support me on patreon, here’s the link: https://www.patreon.com/flaviogaming
So, that’s all I have for you guys in this post. I hope you guys found it helpful.